Anticipating Ethnic Conflict
Tellis, Ashley J. / Szayna, Thomas S. / Winnefeld, James A.
Is it possible to know if regional ethnic conflict may erupt into brutal civil war? Better anticipation of such potential strife can lead to better preparation, such as Army training, equipping, doctrine, and deployment. The authors here provide a model designed to help intelligence analysts predict whether competition between an ethnic group and a state will end in violence.